🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <93027.161640RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> writes:
>you, eduardo, and annette are prisoners, and the warden says,
>"two of you, chosen at random, are going to be executed tomorrow."
>clearly, you have a 1/3 chance of living.  at least one of annette
>and eduardo will die, so you ask the warden to tell you the name of
>a person, besides yourself, who will be executed.  "annette's gonna
>bite it," he says.
>
>now, what's the chance of your survival? it is the chance that eduardo
>will be executed, given that annette will be executed.  that is equal
>to the chance that both eduardo and annette will be executed, divided
>by the chance that annette will be executed.  that's 1/3 divided by
>2/3.  that's 1/2.
 ^^^

The 2/3 should be 1, since the warden has told you that Annette *will*
be executed.  So your odds of survival compute to 1/3.  No paradox.

The way you have set this up, it is *exactly* analogous to the Monty
Hall puzzle.

-- David Karr (karr@cs.cornell.edu)