help: have forecast, need % probability

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1 total messages Started by Rosemary Macedo Thu, 05 Nov 1992 18:22

#517

Author: Rosemary Macedo
Date: Thu, 05 Nov 1992 18:22

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Please help this nonstatistician.

I have a forecast of y.  I know the historical distribution (mean &
st dev) of the forecasts of y, and I know the same for y itself.
How do I calculate the % chance, given FCST(y), that y > 0 or < 0 ?
I also know the mult R of my forecasts with the actual.

Please reply to rosy@alumni.caltech.edu
Thanks in advance for help.  (My access to reference books in statistics is 
rather  limited).r

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