🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <3027@news.cerf.net> snodgras@cyber.net (John E. Snodgrass) writes:
>>>       There is no such thing as "just chance".
>
>>       Even if you believe the universe is deterministic, this is
>>an unreasonable statement.  ...
>>       Similarly, if you put a bunch of chemicals with the right
>>elements into solution, with an external energy source to keep
>>them within a certain energy range, eventually any given molecule
>>formed from those elements will form.  In some cases, it will
>>take a fraction of a second; in others, the average waiting time
>>will be 10^100 years or longer.  This is the only sense of
>>"chance" needed for my comments above.
>
>       A logical approach to discovery prompts us to say: why
>certain molecules form is not a matter of chance, but of the
>nature of the elements and the environment they share. Let us
>discover what actually happened. This would be interesting. :-)

That is exactly how these estimates of probability are arrived at.  Consider
what chemical reactions are required to generate the molecules in question,
given the chemical environment believed to have existed before life arose,
and determine what the reaction rate is.  From there, you have an estimate
of how long, on average, it will take for the reaction to take place once.
In some cases, this is very short; in others, it is very long.