Re: Final Question for Sylvia Else (Inability to fullfill contract)

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#5291

From: Richard Cornford
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 05:40

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|-|ercules wrote:
> Richard Cornford wrote
>>
>> It is still far too small a test set for this protocol, but if the 
>> effect was significant you would expect to see 5 out of 5 being a
>> common enough result to have already shown up. If the effect is no
>> more than "better than random" then it would probably take at least
>> a few hundred samples to decide the issue.
>
>
> I suggest a 3 question set in future.

The appropriate test is determined by what it is that you are trying to 
test for. If it is only a better than random correlation that you are 
trying to demonstrate then a better test would be, for each question 
(where the specific question doesn't matter much), mix the 'channelled' 
answer with, say, 9 random quotes form the same book (so that all the 
options have the same prose style and set of possible characters/subject 
matter) and see if people can pick out the 'channelled' answer. Of 
course both the 'channelled' responses and the random quotes would have 
to follow the same word selection rules (say, from the word at the point 
selected to the next full stop), and it would be best if someone else 
could create the lists of random quotes.

> It will detect the subtle answers more readily.
>
> 0/3 -> 2 possibilities -> bottom 33.3%
> 1/3 -> 3 possibilities -> top 66.6%  (2 chances out of 3 to score 1 or
> more right)
> 3/3 -> 1 possibility -> top 16.6%

Your figures don't add up again.

> I can do 3 sets of 3 questions per day.
>
> I have to work out a FAIL benchmark.

If it is a better than random correlation then results that were no 
better then random would be a fail.

> A PASSMARK will just be accumulating the odds broken until I reach
> the required 1,000,000:1.

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From: "Richard Cornford" <Richard@litotes.demon.co.uk>
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Subject: Re: Final Question for Sylvia Else (Inability to fullfill contract)
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 06:40:01 +0100
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