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Article #7434Re: Subjective Safety Measure(Re: man-rating)
From: fisher
Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1993 19:21
Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1993 19:21
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It would seem to me that whether probability of exit or deaths per passenger mile is a more valid measure would depend on why you want the info. For example, the airplane vs car comparison probably makes more sense in terms of miles, because I interpret the question to be "If I want to travel from Boston to Chicago, is it safer to use a car or a plane." Chances are that you will exit the car more times between Boston and Chicago than you will by plane. On the other hand, if you are comparing it with the shuttle, the "per mile" is specious. The fact that you went 2 million miles to get from LC39 to the runway across the island, or the fact that the runway is 2 miles from the pad is irrelavent. So in this, I think I would compare entry/exit. The other interesting part of this is that most airplane fatalities (and so far all shuttle fatalities) occur close to entry/exit. In other words the length of the trip is unlikely to be significant to the probability of fatality. I doubt this is strictly true in cars. While I have heard that most accidents happen within 10 miles of home, I suspect that is because most of person-miles spent in cars are within 10 miles of home. Anyway...(why did I get into this discussion!!!!???) Burns
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Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!dtix!darwin.sura.net!haven.umd.edu!decuac!pa.dec.com!engage.pko.dec.com!nntpd.lkg.dec.com!decwin.enet.dec.com!fisher From: fisher@decwin.enet.dec.com Newsgroups: sci.space,sci.aeronautics Subject: Re: Subjective Safety Measure(Re: man-rating) Message-ID: <1993Jan8.192116.28539@nntpd.lkg.dec.com> Date: 8 Jan 93 19:21:16 GMT References: <1993Jan7.152456.25477@mksol.dseg.ti.com> <1993Jan7.181829.13714@cs.ucf.edu> <1993Jan8.173933.12320@ke4zv.uucp> Sender: usenet@nntpd.lkg.dec.com (USENET News System) Reply-To: fisher@decwin.enet.dec.com () Organization: Digital Equipment Corporation Lines: 25