Re: Final Question for Sylvia Else (Inability to fullfill contract)

Article View: sci.skeptic

Article #5294

#5294

From: |-|ercules
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 07:01

61 lines
4381 bytes

"Sylvia Else" <sylvia@not.here.invalid> wrote 
> On 19/09/2010 2:48 PM, |-|ercules wrote:
>> "Richard Cornford" <Richard@litotes.demon.co.uk> wrote
>>>
>>> It is still far too small a test set for this protocol, but if the
>>> effect was significant you would expect to see 5 out of 5 being a
>>> common enough result to have already shown up. If the effect is no
>>> more than "better than random" then it would probably take at least a
>>> few hundred samples to decide the issue.
>>
>>
>> I suggest a 3 question set in future. It will detect the subtle answers
>> more readily.
>>
>> 0/3 -> 2 possibilities -> bottom 33.3%
>> 1/3 -> 3 possibilities -> top 66.6% (2 chances out of 3 to score 1 or
>> more right)
>> 3/3 -> 1 possibility -> top 16.6%
>>
>> I can do 3 sets of 3 questions per day.
>>
>> I have to work out a FAIL benchmark.
>>
>> A PASSMARK will just be accumulating the odds broken until I reach the
>> required 1,000,000:1.
> 
> It's not clear what you mean by a FAIL benchmark in this context, but it 
> sounds like you want to be allowed to continue until you suceed, but 
> then argue that that sucess had only a 1 in one million probability of 
> being by chance.
> 
> Remember that you claim to have detected this power within yourself. It 
> cannot be so dilute as to require complicated statistical analysis of 
> extended data sets to demonstrate its existence, or you'd never have 
> noticed it.
> 
> Sylvia.

A maximum number of tests is fairly easy to work out.

Let's have 3 options per question, 1 being the channel, fresh options for every Q.

Expected score right matching the channel is 33%.

Let's make the fail benchmark below 50% (over 20 or more questions)

BINOMIAL
P = 0.33
Trials = 200
Expected (1,000,000:1) = 34-100

Perfect!

200 questions, 50% benchmark.

Possibility to score higher on fewer questions.  e.g. 25/30.

9 out of 10 claimants won't make it past 20 questions.

Herc

Technical Details

Message-ID: <8flqqmFtvcU1@mid.individual.net>

Path:

arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!g2news1.google.com!news3.google.com!feeder1.cambriumusenet.nl!feed.tweaknews.nl!193.201.147.81.MISMATCH!feed.xsnews.nl!border-1.ams.xsnews.nl!fu-berlin.de!uni-berlin.de!individual.net!not-for-mail

References:

<8fdahaFa4mU1@mid.individual.net> <8fdaraFboaU1@mid.individual.net> <8fdmijF2j6U1@mid.individual.net> <8fdrn9Ftr8U1@mid.individual.net> <8fdt99F722U1@mid.individual.net> <8fe0gdFpt5U1@mid.individual.net> <8fe6meFvqpU1@mid.individual.net> <8febmjFu75U1@mid.individual.net> <8fecanF2enU1@mid.individual.net> <ooj596t86sm70tnvd36h6l16q57745f345@4ax.com> <8fg3r4F909U1@mid.individual.net> <p786965ojgbq67g14lqqkn5d370vogin60@4ax.com> <8fgtijFm15U1@mid.individual.net> <272896tjcpl4d9grofheek5c5ge4r08vh5@4ax.com> <8fil0tFp9dU1@mid.individual.net> <z_-dnWvgLcKqoQnRnZ2dnUVZ7oadnZ2d@giganews.com> <8fiu22F3ldU1@mid.individual.net> <I5Kdnb99b6C4xwnRnZ2dnUVZ7s-dnZ2d@giganews.com> <8fj4pbF428U1@mid.individual.net> <24-dnV0oQqpVYQnRnZ2dnUVZ8nydnZ2d@giganews.com> <8fl4hqFj94U1@mid.individual.net> <-86dnRUCcNL1CQjRnZ2dnUVZ7sWdnZ2d@giganews.com> <8flj1aFneuU1@mid.individual.net> <8flq04FpobU1@mid.individual.net>

Show Full Headers

Complete Article Headers

X-Google-Thread: f44bc,c689aad361b93075
X-Google-NewGroupId: yes
X-Google-Thread: 102c27,c689aad361b93075
X-Google-NewGroupId: yes
X-Google-Thread: 1038e3,c689aad361b93075
X-Google-NewGroupId: yes
X-Google-Thread: 10a774,c689aad361b93075
X-Google-NewGroupId: yes
X-Google-Thread: 107787,250192c4cd10ee66
X-Google-NewGroupId: yes
X-Google-Attributes: giddc1377d6e,gid35c5869fd6,gidb0034e805d,gid3ac807a62f,gid2f40725cd2,domainid0,public,usenet
X-Google-Language: ENGLISH,ASCII-7-bit
Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!g2news1.google.com!news3.google.com!feeder1.cambriumusenet.nl!feed.tweaknews.nl!193.201.147.81.MISMATCH!feed.xsnews.nl!border-1.ams.xsnews.nl!fu-berlin.de!uni-berlin.de!individual.net!not-for-mail
From: "|-|ercules" <radgray123@yahoo.com>
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic,aus.legal,misc.legal,aus.tv,alt.paranormal
Subject: Re: Final Question for Sylvia Else (Inability to fullfill contract)
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 17:01:37 +1000
Lines: 61
Message-ID: <8flqqmFtvcU1@mid.individual.net>
References: <8fdahaFa4mU1@mid.individual.net> <8fdaraFboaU1@mid.individual.net> <8fdmijF2j6U1@mid.individual.net> <8fdrn9Ftr8U1@mid.individual.net> <8fdt99F722U1@mid.individual.net> <8fe0gdFpt5U1@mid.individual.net> <8fe6meFvqpU1@mid.individual.net> <8febmjFu75U1@mid.individual.net> <8fecanF2enU1@mid.individual.net> <ooj596t86sm70tnvd36h6l16q57745f345@4ax.com> <8fg3r4F909U1@mid.individual.net> <p786965ojgbq67g14lqqkn5d370vogin60@4ax.com> <8fgtijFm15U1@mid.individual.net> <272896tjcpl4d9grofheek5c5ge4r08vh5@4ax.com> <8fil0tFp9dU1@mid.individual.net> <z_-dnWvgLcKqoQnRnZ2dnUVZ7oadnZ2d@giganews.com> <8fiu22F3ldU1@mid.individual.net> <I5Kdnb99b6C4xwnRnZ2dnUVZ7s-dnZ2d@giganews.com> <8fj4pbF428U1@mid.individual.net> <24-dnV0oQqpVYQnRnZ2dnUVZ8nydnZ2d@giganews.com> <8fl4hqFj94U1@mid.individual.net> <-86dnRUCcNL1CQjRnZ2dnUVZ7sWdnZ2d@giganews.com> <8flj1aFneuU1@mid.individual.net> <8flq04FpobU1@mid.individual.net>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain;
 format=flowed;
 charset="iso-8859-1";
 reply-type=response
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-Trace: individual.net GheMuxesNW69Z1wt9/i0uAUcdnh1RWuuOnPbYq1NFhW4Urzq+u
Cancel-Lock: sha1:3g7xHEKVemj+ehzss54gLPRljGg=
In-Reply-To: <8flq04FpobU1@mid.individual.net>
X-Priority: 3
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
Importance: Normal
X-Newsreader: Microsoft Windows Live Mail 14.0.8089.726
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V14.0.8089.726

Reply to Parent Message